Stock Ideas (#3)

Last updated Saturday, 02-Oct-1999 05:19:12 UTC.

What follows are descriptions of stocks I have been following of late that I think are good bets either long or short. This list is for October 1999.

This month's picks focus on beaten-down sectors. I am establishing a model long/short portfolio that I will be updating here. You won't be disappointed, regardless of market direction.



Symbol Name Price Rating Comments
C Citigroup 44 *****

I continue to like this monstrosity of a financial services company. Following the Bank One and Capital One announcements it occurred to me that Citigroup may be moving ahead in the credit card game. This is a long-term holding in all my accounts.

(I have a pretty favorable outlook for interest rates; it may be less attractive to those who don't, or have enough exposure to that effect already)

PCLN Priceline.com 63 yukyukyukyuk

This company still sucks. Remain short. Those who took my advice sold it short at 139.

AMN Ameron 47 *****

While valued like an airline, this company displays earnings quality and growth that are on par with much more expensive companies. Their recent strength and the possibility of a new high is reason enough to love the shares here. Could reach a split-adjusted 100 if they avoid any missteps.

LUV Southwest Airlines 15 *****

This airline is incredibly undervalued here. This is an excellent company, and it could triple as it returns to favor.

CAL Continental Airlines 32 *****

This airline is intriguing due to favorable results in the customer satisfaction category. You'll notice I'm overweighing airlines -- this is due to their poor performance last quarter creating a lot of screaming buys. Oil is one of the problems, but I think production will be stepped up and the price shock will dissipate back to the $20 level in short order.

ACAI Atlantic Coast Airlines 20 ****

No change; this airline is in much better shape than its valuation indicates. The forward P/E is 8 and 20% profit growth is projected. Regional carrier service appears to me to be an untapped market, so 20% growth seems conservative.

Buy under 25; reaching P/E of 25 could mean 300% returns.

AMR AMR (American Airlines) 54 yukyukyuk

As a hedge, here is an airline that is not doing much to improve its lot in life. It could get worse from here! Don't fret about the valuation -- I think it's cheap for a reason.

AWA AWA (America West) 18 yukyukyuk

TheStreet.com's airline column gave me the idea to go short this airline. According to them, costs and yields are going to go in the wrong direction, and the stock acts poorly. We will see. It's also cheap for a reason.

CHINA China.com 63 yukyukyukyuk

This is my next pick for an Internet play that sucks. Hyped to these levels by virtue of being the only cyber-Asia play around, it is starting to sink in that business is not terribly good. They are censored by the Chinese government, involved in a dispute about Taiwan and not even among the top 10 websites visited by the citizenry. Cute symbol, but a real loser when investors start to care about earnings. Stay short if you can.

CTXS Citrix 59 ****

The market is starting to come around again to the notion that other software players may be able to grow despite the enormous influence of Microsoft. Citrix has delivered excellent earnings growth, and probably deserves its current valuation. If the real trend moves toward software-on-demand then these guys will strongly dominate and have the stock performance to prove it.

MMWW Metamor Worldwide 17 ****

This IT solutions firm is probably undervalued with respect to its vast assets. In fact, it shows up on many PEG ratio screens and the like. Shares have just stabilized from a pretty wild drop, so I'm betting on a run this month. Daytraders are interested because of their e-commerce arm, which may be spun off in interesting ways; check it out.

CREAF Creative Technologies 10 ***

This is the Blaster company. They will do well over the holidays as PC gaming continues to rise to new levels. It is one of the few international stocks I can recommend.

NSANY Nissan 12 ***

As far as stock performance goes, it's no contest between Nissan and the more Americanized automakers. I expect their turnaround to take place faster than expected, and long-term holders could be rewarded richly. For now, the uptrend and need to diversify away from the S&P makes this one a good purchase.

CANNY Canon 28 ***

Here's another fine Japanese brand. They have been performing nicely, like Nissan, but have the luxury of fine profitabiity and earnings growth. I don't think the yen stands to pose real threats this month to their future export profitability, so I choose this one as a long holding.

JBL Jabil 49 ***

I like this electronics maker; it's similar to Solectron. They should enjoy increased business from the likes of Cisco in the coming months. Plus, they are more reasonably valued than Solectron. Let's hope it's not for a very negative reason... :)

DELL Dell 41 ****

I am proud to enthusiastically recommend Dell once again. After a period of concern by investors, they came back with a blowout quarter just when people were beginning to write off the business. They take true advantage of e-commerce and nearly put Compaq out of business this year. The Taiwan situation is not going to hurt them as much as it will hurt the smaller players, so their market share may actually be set to improve. Buy now and hope for 100.

SLR Solectron 74 ***

This company is still climbing nicely and is a strong growth play. The valuation is rich, so be careful.

BTGC Biotechnology General 10 ***

A handful of biotechs have a rich business with real opportunities in the next decade, but few exhibit this kind of profit growth at such a reasonable price. It's under accumulation, so pick some up at 10 while you can. When a rebound comes to the pharmaceutical sector, you'll regret being in the big names if this stock rockets 200-300% in sympathy. They have very nice products -- check their website out sometime!

BCHE Biochem Pharma Inc 24 ***

Here is another strongly-growing biotech name, to go along with BTGC above.

DK Donna Karan 8 yukyuk

I remain short Donna Karan. Look for the bottom to drop out of DK if results don't improve soon, as investors still expect a lot from them. I commonly establish a protective buy stop on short sales that is near the downward trendline. On the day it hit 7 11/16, I would have shorted a hundred or so with an 8 1/2 stop.


Copyright (C) 1999-2000 Joseph Fouché.
The above does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any securities.

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