What follows are descriptions of stocks I have been following of late that I think are good bets either long or short. This list is for October 1999.
This month's picks focus on beaten-down sectors. I am establishing a model long/short portfolio that I will be updating here. You won't be disappointed, regardless of market direction.
Symbol | Name | Price | Rating | Comments |
C | Citigroup | 44 | I continue to like this monstrosity of a financial services company. Following the Bank One and Capital One announcements it occurred to me that Citigroup may be moving ahead in the credit card game. This is a long-term holding in all my accounts. (I have a pretty favorable outlook for interest rates; it may be less attractive to those who don't, or have enough exposure to that effect already) |
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PCLN | Priceline.com | 63 | This company still sucks. Remain short. Those who took my advice sold it short at 139. |
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AMN | Ameron | 47 | While valued like an airline, this company displays earnings quality and growth that are on par with much more expensive companies. Their recent strength and the possibility of a new high is reason enough to love the shares here. Could reach a split-adjusted 100 if they avoid any missteps. |
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LUV | Southwest Airlines | 15 | This airline is incredibly undervalued here. This is an excellent company, and it could triple as it returns to favor. |
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CAL | Continental Airlines | 32 | This airline is intriguing due to favorable results in the customer satisfaction category. You'll notice I'm overweighing airlines -- this is due to their poor performance last quarter creating a lot of screaming buys. Oil is one of the problems, but I think production will be stepped up and the price shock will dissipate back to the $20 level in short order.
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ACAI | Atlantic Coast Airlines | 20 | No change; this airline is in much better shape than its valuation indicates. The forward P/E is 8 and 20% profit growth is projected. Regional carrier service appears to me to be an untapped market, so 20% growth seems conservative. Buy under 25; reaching P/E of 25 could mean 300% returns. |
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AMR | AMR (American Airlines) | 54 | As a hedge, here is an airline that is not doing much to improve its lot in life. It could get worse from here! Don't fret about the valuation -- I think it's cheap for a reason. |
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AWA | AWA (America West) | 18 | TheStreet.com's airline column gave me the idea to go short this airline. According to them, costs and yields are going to go in the wrong direction, and the stock acts poorly. We will see. It's also cheap for a reason. |
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CHINA | China.com | 63 | This is my next pick for an Internet play that sucks. Hyped to these levels by virtue of being the only cyber-Asia play around, it is starting to sink in that business is not terribly good. They are censored by the Chinese government, involved in a dispute about Taiwan and not even among the top 10 websites visited by the citizenry. Cute symbol, but a real loser when investors start to care about earnings. Stay short if you can. |
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CTXS | Citrix | 59 | The market is starting to come around again to the notion that other software players may be able to grow despite the enormous influence of Microsoft. Citrix has delivered excellent earnings growth, and probably deserves its current valuation. If the real trend moves toward software-on-demand then these guys will strongly dominate and have the stock performance to prove it. |
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MMWW | Metamor Worldwide | 17 | This IT solutions firm is probably undervalued with respect to its vast assets. In fact, it shows up on many PEG ratio screens and the like. Shares have just stabilized from a pretty wild drop, so I'm betting on a run this month. Daytraders are interested because of their e-commerce arm, which may be spun off in interesting ways; check it out. |
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CREAF | Creative Technologies | 10 | This is the Blaster company. They will do well over the holidays as PC gaming continues to rise to new levels. It is one of the few international stocks I can recommend. |
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NSANY | Nissan | 12 | As far as stock performance goes, it's no contest between Nissan and the more Americanized automakers. I expect their turnaround to take place faster than expected, and long-term holders could be rewarded richly. For now, the uptrend and need to diversify away from the S&P makes this one a good purchase. |
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CANNY | Canon | 28 | Here's another fine Japanese brand. They have been performing nicely, like Nissan, but have the luxury of fine profitabiity and earnings growth. I don't think the yen stands to pose real threats this month to their future export profitability, so I choose this one as a long holding. |
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JBL | Jabil | 49 | I like this electronics maker; it's similar to Solectron. They should enjoy increased business from the likes of Cisco in the coming months. Plus, they are more reasonably valued than Solectron. Let's hope it's not for a very negative reason... :) |
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DELL | Dell | 41 | I am proud to enthusiastically recommend Dell once again. After a period of concern by investors, they came back with a blowout quarter just when people were beginning to write off the business. They take true advantage of e-commerce and nearly put Compaq out of business this year. The Taiwan situation is not going to hurt them as much as it will hurt the smaller players, so their market share may actually be set to improve. Buy now and hope for 100. |
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SLR | Solectron | 74 | This company is still climbing nicely and is a strong growth play. The valuation is rich, so be careful. |
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BTGC | Biotechnology General | 10 | A handful of biotechs have a rich business with real opportunities in the next decade, but few exhibit this kind of profit growth at such a reasonable price. It's under accumulation, so pick some up at 10 while you can. When a rebound comes to the pharmaceutical sector, you'll regret being in the big names if this stock rockets 200-300% in sympathy. They have very nice products -- check their website out sometime! |
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BCHE | Biochem Pharma Inc | 24 | Here is another strongly-growing biotech name, to go along with BTGC above. |
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DK | Donna Karan | 8 | I remain short Donna Karan. Look for the bottom to drop out of DK if results don't improve soon, as investors still expect a lot from them. I commonly establish a protective buy stop on short sales that is near the downward trendline. On the day it hit 7 11/16, I would have shorted a hundred or so with an 8 1/2 stop. |